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Not only does consumption at the same income levels increase secularly, but our rudimentary statistical data indicate that in each decade for the half century prior to 1929 about the same percentage of national income was saved. The concept of a chronic world shortage of dollars is perhaps too complex for full analysis in a paper of this length. The rate of population growth fell off sharply after 1929.
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The trend in the terms of trade against primary products in favor of industrial goods may be expected to continue after the war, unless further steps are taken to correct it, because of the wartime expansion in agricultural and raw-material capacity and the accelerated development of manufactured substitutes for natural commodities * That this trend has been disturbing to the main tenance of international trade equilibrium under an open system cannot be doubted. Rivalry in Retail Financial Services. Professor of Economics, Harvard University; Author of Business Cydes (New York and London, 1939), The Theory o / Fcono? It is an important key to economic expansion. There will have to be a minimum list of conditions that every country must satisfy to be admitted to the world organization.
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Capital movements will doubtless be promoted by many devices, also perhaps excessively. He thinks that the setting up of international machinery is useless unless the proper spirit prevails and proper policies are adopted; he even believes that the existence of an international organization like the League of Nations with its large conferences and opportuni ties for resounding but empty speeches may be positively harmful. He can be certain, however, that the economic problems will be numerous: employment; the division of authority and operations between government and private interests; the distribution of the shares of income; the contributions of govern mental and private interests to total spending; the manner of carry ing on international trade; social security; reconstruction both at home and abroad. One reason for expecting this is that the veterans of the present war will doubtless get medical care very largely at public expense for the rest of their lives, as did veterans of the last war. 4 Includes gasoline, general sales, liquor excises and licenses, and tobacco excises and licenses. Prestige products direct llc. Whatever the concept of oversaving is supposed to mean, it cer tainly does not imply that at the same levels of real income modern communities consume less than they used to. Unfor tunately, he offers not a shred of evidence in support of his "con viction" that "investment opportunities are and have been nearly limitless.
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The result is the dismally familiar story of the spread of blighted areas and slums. According to this first point of view, the short-run marginal propensity to consume is less than the long-run marginal propensity to consume. Bilateralism was for the most part induced by the freezing of England's accounts abroad, though the case of Argentina is an important exception; and the quota system before the war was not extensive. The great threat to world order lies in large-scale, centralized national systems, for such systems are incompatible with that larger scheme of world organization which is the alternative to absolutism or chaos on a world scale. Even in 1940, Federal income and excess proBts taxes took $2. But the forma tion of larger economic areas on a regional basis implies, of course, a mutual and not a unilateral abolition or reduction in trade barriers. Consumer products direct prestige wwc solutions. They may create situations so compelling as to impose permanent departures from the lines previously followed, and atti tudes greatly at variance with any observed before. Nevertheless, the data all bear out such a conclusion. They suggest certain conclusions.
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Reviews of Colin Clark, FcottottM qf 1960 (London, 1942), which is C* not yet available at the time of writing, indicate his view that a new shift in the terms of trade in favor of primary products will occur in the near future. 5 billion, it is certainly reasonable to assume that deferred private capital expenditures will add at least a billion per year for 5 years to the total investment that would normally be forthcoming with the gross national expenditure of $132 billion. There is no point now, however, in discussing international com modity agreements in an Axis-dominated world. The Bureau of Public Roads is making studies of interregional and express high ways with appropriate connections through and around the great metropolitan centers. In accordance with Hansen's suggestion, this, applied to the assumed postwar expenditure of $132 billion, gives a figure of $9. The final conclusion to be drawn from our experience at the end of the last war is inescapable—were /Ac war fo SM dde? The war will leave behind it a heritage of new materials, new methods, and new products.
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But if all consumption items are added weighted more or less heavily with products requiring much or little labor per unit. If the basic trouble is a lack of sufBcient investment opportunity, the only basic remedy is an increase in the propensity to consume. The conse quences of such a maladjustment can be serious. Afanapement (Washington, D. C., 1941), Afodem j&conomic ^oc^ety (New York, 1931) John D. Sumner. Ied Refieto (Inter-allied Information Centre, New York), Oct. 15, 1941, p. * /n/fr-aMed Oct. ' /Md., p. * This declaration reads: **1. 137-142 and 164-172. Once this demand has been determined, the magnitude and nature of the demand for labor and resources to be provided by public work, directly or indirectly, can also be determined. N U T R I T I O N, FOOD A T T I T U D E S 285 SOCIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF NUTRITION Like sanitation, nutrition presents a broader Reid than bio chemistry, home economics, or preventive medicine. There is, of course, no precise standard of what constitutes full employ ment. In answer to the contention that a permanent debt is a breach of faith, it is suggested that the obligation of the government is merely to provide the cash value of the bond on the date of maturity: the cash required may be obtained through sales of new bonds. "Total war" under modem conditions calls for a concentration of effort much more stringent than the mechanism of capitalist markets can achieve. Continued increase in population in a period of depression and large-scale unemployment might have little effect beyond increas ing still further the number of unemployed. Blundering there will be, of course; but the better the advance thinking, the smaller the area of blundering is likely to be. However, there is no special reason to believe that we shall necessarily return to prewar price levels.
Would the economic and political policies of unions help or hinder the fight against a postwar delation? The first and largest item is industrial equipment. It would still be theoretically conceivable—and, of course, economi cally desirable—to operate all these controls in such a manner as to utilize as fuliy as possible opportunities of increasing output through international trade and division of labor. 334 P O S T W A R E C ON O M IC PR OBLEMS principles of international trade, the national income as a whole will rise after the necessary adjustments have been made. Depressions a Daityer to Free One lesson stands out with great clarity from the experiences of the last two decades. See this company's YOY change in purchases for each major spend category and learn the business implications of those CREDIT REPORT. 3 per cent in 1929 to 62. I trust we shall act boldly and generously on this score, toward both our allies 150 POSTWAR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS The difEculty is, first, that leaders will be defeatist from the start on tariffs and trade, as they now are generally in Washington about the American tariff, and abroad becausc of that defeatism here. It should be encouraged with great energy. Removal of tariff barriers will go far as an antimonopoly measure in most directions; but there can be no free access to raw materials unless the nations possessing them assure competitive prices and competitive labor costs in their production. It is impossible to discuss at this point the * Whether and where to draw the line between these two systems and between both of them and capitalism need not be discussed here. Needless to say, the validity of this viewpoint is unaiTected by the war. From other passages it appears, however, that Prof. Simons does not really mean to go so far.
This is only 4 per cent above the 1929 figure, although gross national expenditure is assumed to be 32 per cent higher. If we did plunge resolutely in this direction, we might find the task of policing the world not only feasible and easy but * England, in some respects, has moved further from a free economy than we— with her extreme centralization, cartelization, and syndicalism; but Eng land is less important than our country, and her postwar institutional develop ment will largely follow, even be dictated by, our own. If foreign exchange is available, this increased demand for imports will be effective in markets abroad and will result in higher imports. Manufacturing corporations have been converted and distorted until war and prewar resemblance has become a matter of name only. Costs and income are just opposite sides of the same shield. In this section a few words will be added on how our problem —regionalism—would be changed if interventionism and central government planning in most countries were on such a large scale as to make pure tariff agreements between countries worthless. In a highly Ructuating society, corporate proRts are high in good times and extremely low in bad times, but the average must be adequate to motivate a proRt economy and ensure its work ability. These people can even find support for such an idea in economic literature. In the first months after November 11, our war expenditures were larger than at any previous time.
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