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A full-employment economy would tend automatically toward a distribution of income favorable to high consumption. If a case can be made for a regional reduction in trade barriers, a still better one holds for a general reduction. Under the first hypothesis we assume that the expenditure of the Federal government (plus the interest charge) always exceeds the tax revenue by a constant amount. 77 zation has proceeded, its effects, relatively speaking, have become less, not more, revolutionary. And interregional trade, and perfecting methods of employing all, even the handicapped, who want to work or whose work is needed. Prestige consumer healthcare brands. Most such agreements, I assume, will either be liquidated after the present war, as others were after the First World War, or be merged into the type next to be discussed.

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Forest Service, and the Federal Public Housing Agency, have developed "experience tables" showing the volume of employment provided by (say) $1 million of public work of various sorts. Rivalry in Retail Financial Services. The investments may not be efficiently or economically made and the return may be disappointing for that reason. It starts with an international convention, in which the participating countries agree on a series of exchange rates. The assumptions about government should be reasonable on the basis of precedent, yet actual prediction would be of no help, even if it were possible.

Individualists, in the tradition of nineteenth-century liberalism, may well look askance at schemes for setting up poten tially greater Leviathans, and should themselves urge reliance upon more flexible, less formal organization and upon return to the League of Nations, as essentially a forum for discussion of issues and aiding of grievances, and as a flexible agency for promoting open coopera tive action in world affairs. This need not happen if the situa tion is properly handled, and, as a matter of fact, will not happen in any overwhelming way even if nothing is done about it. Consumer products direct prestige wwc solutions. And yet there is no escape for the unions. The writer will be content if out of this new world war will come just one new generally accepted idea or principle, t% that each child and each worker s., shall be assured the opportunity of a minimum adequate diet, A G R I C U L T U R A L PROBLEMS 297 and that m eans shall be taken to establish food habits that w ill comprise such diets. The most that can be hoped for is that they cushion the first impact of the depression and help to stop the deflationary spiral.

The classic function of the government in a free-enterprise economy is to estab lish and maintain the institutional and legal environment in which economic decisions are made. Prestige consumer healthcare products. The program that has been suggested for social security after the war is a large order. Sherman pioneered in the requirements for minerals, and McCollum, Funk, and others in vitamins. Are more or less deflationary, partly because they fall to some extent at least on the consumption stream, and partly because taxes per se are inherently restrictive.

Since the turn of the century, however, funda mental changes have been in process. I I 484 531 547 558 921 1, 211 1, 217 1, 318 1, 454 1, 475 * By sources of funds. The wide spread popular support that is marshaled during wartime will be absent. The rise in prices during the first 3 years of the war has been considerably less * It is possible that the physical necessity of making large expenditures to support millions of men under arms may prevent a very large or sudden drop in government expenditures. To a certain extent, also, if commodity 4 is more necessary for war purposes, Brms may continue to produce it as a matter of patriotic obligation. But, possibly as an unfortu nate legacy of the war, the interest on the debt will be financed out of taxes assessed upon wages and salaries, income which has no counterpart in capital value. Until the defense program, all these gains plus the whole of our population increase were dissipated in unemployment or shared underemploy ment. Even apart from the question of confidence in currencies, hot money will be troublesome because the proportion of liquid to total assets* has grown enormously in all countries. Should cost be based upon current wages and prices, or upon expected wages and prices, or upon wages and prices as they existed at the time when the experi ence tables were derived? They make full employment in one country more difBcult to obtain because it is shared to some degree with others. This view is, however, not sustained by past experience. They may create situations so compelling as to impose permanent departures from the lines previously followed, and atti tudes greatly at variance with any observed before.

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5 per cent of pay rolls, have been retained but are now commingled with other government funds. It may happen that peace will be preceded by a period of decreasing military expenditure and of gradually increasing production for civilian consumption and also that the former will continue, though at a reduced rate, on a level much beyond that of prewar times. As a result of the war, systematic training and upgrading has made as much progress in 3 years as it would have made in a decade. The need for extensive replanning and rebuilding of American towns and cities is urgent. Insofar as the two policies are mutually exclusive, the choice between them must, of course, rest on which one will con tribute more to the long-run effectiveness and stability of the economic system. If a new trade equilibrium is to be established (assuming no change in the exchange rate, demand schedules, or other conditions of trade), national income must rise still higher in ^4, decline in B, or both. This position is debatable.

As victory Snally loomed ahead, a number of programs for "Reconstruction" did emerge, but these were almost exclusively international. VH How would union political policies affect the problem of fighting a postwar deSation? If this privileged country cannot 611 the import needs of the United States, sugar will still be imported from nonprivileged countries, say, from the world market. But for this we must be ready to start on the new plan the moment we can stop the prosecution of the war.

4 0 5 0 2 -0 7 0 0 $ 2. Penetrative thinking, realistic analysis, and frank expression are called for, to puncture bubbles of illusion and dispel dreams that obscure genuine vision, as well as to pave the way for solutions of vexing problems involved. There are those who conSdently look forward to the latter. But in this case nothing like the present valuations placed on most of such land can be maintained. But although the individual can accumulate wealth without investing in real capital goods, society as a whole cannot. Since business-cycle theory assumes that the general level of employment and output is satisfactory, it is interested primarily in compensatory policies, t. e., in policies designed to offset temporary departures from the norm. Progress in the Reid of nutritional research, and development of methods whereby we can gauge approximate dietary needs under a reasonable food standard, offer a starting point from which any nation can calculate its minimum food requirements. It was a boom without prosperity initiated by the inevitable large govern ment expenditures necessary to wind up the war. Some would live better if they consumed less.

Shoup, Federal Finances in Cominy Decade (New York, 1941), p. 24. 378 P O S T W A R E C O N O M I C P R O B L E MS The reasons underlying this movement in the terms of trade can be illustrated by reference to agricultural products. During the war they have been and will be inHuenced by a shortage of raw materials, transportation facilities, electric energy, and man power. The picture is clearly that of a planless rush to wind up the war activities as quickly as possible, without thought of possible adverse consequences. There is no justi fication to envisage a "generation" or decade of prosperity from this factor. The chief problems on the state and local level are, however, Bscal. Otherwise, we must expect every nation to strive, even more vigorously than in the recent interwar period, to become as self-sufBcient as possible in what are regarded as basic foodstuffs and basic raw materials, even at grave sacrifice of otherwise attainable consumption levels.

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Ease of communication of thought is a twentieth-century commonplace; but the conse quence that like factors of production are beginning to insist upon a greater approach to equality of real incomes in spite of lack of mobility is barely beginning to be realized. The real income per capita after taxes would be at a much higher level than before the Second World War. A timid policy that demands the full return of 100 cents on every dollar invested is quite inadequate. In this country, these considerations seem to tell against rather than for it so long as no violent break is on the cards. The theory of secular stagnation differs from the classical theory of the stationary state in its treatment of the propensity to consume and the rate of interest. A Federal-state-local commission to advise Congress and the President on matters of intergovernmental rela tions would undoubtedly make for better understanding and cooperation at all levels of government. For any nation largely dependent upon imports, these con siderations are of the highest importance and make it necessary to relate an expansionist domestic program to the situation in the countries with which that nation carries on its most important trade. Can FCW M C Rewew, Supplement, June, 1942, pp. If nothing else happened to stop it, the decline in income and prices might go on indefinitely. The concept itself is somewhat nebulous when closely examined.

Debate about the stagnation theoiy thus has centered on the problem of investment demand. 132 billion per annum. In any event, it makes a powerful appeal to the vast majority of mankind, in advanced and backward countries alike, as the leaders have belatedly recognized. This one undertaking represented the joint work of the above committee, the Bureau of Labor Sta tistics of the Labor Department, the Bureau of Home Economics of the Agri culture Department, and the Works Progress Administration. All history shows that the continuance of evolutionary progress in government requires a high degree of flexibility and adjustment to changed social forces; and that the effort to compress these forces into traditional molds produces, sooner or later, social and political revolution and economic chaos. 38 Total gross national product................................................... $160 Leas business taxes and corporate gross savings.............. 35 Net national income................................................................ $125 This mode! In a few instances, unions have virtually been the private property of a few leaders. However, there is no special reason to believe that we shall necessarily return to prewar price levels. Diametrically opposed to this is the hypothesis that an increase in income will immediately cause families to make durable-goods purchases in excess of the increase in income, either through use of installment credit or out of previously accumulated wealth.

In fact, something is already being accomplished along these lines now by the con solidated National Housing Agency in connection with the produc tion of war housing. P O S T W A R PUBLI C D E B T 179 high level at such times. Some agreements, like the sockeye-salmon agreement now in limited operation, may well be essentially investigatory, at least initially. It may mean also that space will have to be provided for small airplane landing Reids; for if the number of airplanes in use should ever become remotely comparable to the number of automobiles, they will have to be landed in the middle of town rather than away out in the country. It may be noted that one of these studies comes out with a pessimistic quantitative estimate of the ability of private investment outlay to lead to full employment, while the other paints a rosier picture. In fact, we find that "Western solidarity" increases in times of emergency (such as during the First and Second World War), and that it ebbs quickly after the emergency is over. These measures may include credit for the manufacture and pur chase of machines, the expansion of the tenant-purchase program with its strong emphasis on family-size holdings, and vigorous extension programs designed to develop successful systems of management for family-size farms. The personal income tax has shown itself capable of yielding huge revenues in periods of prosperity. Imports in the other countries. Neither would put up a life-and-death fight in order to prevent the nationalization of big business—say, the corporations owning assets amounting to $50 million or more.

Kuznets' recent study of national income and capital formation over the past 60 years reveals a remarkable constancy in the propor tion of income saved in each decade as a whole. Second, the backlog contains no allowance for postponed net additions to the capital stock, only for net capital consumption. In the past 25 years, deRnite improvements have resulted from publichealth measures among the low-income groups. TAe Uwted States a M the BaZance qfPoteer (New York, 1942), especially Chs.